Foghorn Leghorn’s Wild Brother Provides us An Investment Idea

Foghorn Leghorn's Wild Brother Provides us An Investment Idea

"People eat duck and you think, well, we've lots of chickens, leave the ducks alone!" - Karl Pilkington, A fool Abroad

Good day members,

It turned out our yesterday in paradise. One final celebratory dinner before packing up our things and heading you will find begin school, baseball practices and music lessons. We might reluctantly kiss Key West goodbye the subsequent morning. Our fantastic few weeks from the Conch Republic had finally come to an end...

Wandering to the backyard of the hundred yr old cigar house, ducking the banana leaves and stepping over fallen mangos and coconuts, we arrive at the product. There was about 20 others back there, all drinking some alcoholic concoctions, some smoking stogies and some with the older men playing dominoes. It was dripping hot inside the tree covered yard, with no breeze penetrating the thick canopy. Even just in cooler areas it was 95 degrees. The mosquitoes were sweating.

The sounds of salsa music emanated from an old single speaker radio, and children's laughter filled the air. Within the back right corner, a smaller cage with two very quiet chickens... next to it, a chopping block and knife.

These folks were friends of my wife's family; longtime residents from the island, returning generations. They kept lots of the traditions of the Cuban ancestors, including Sunday morning church service accompanied by drinking and feasting all afternoon. This Sunday, it will be rum accompanied by an early on dinner, then rum, a lot more rum, Cuban rum cake for desert, then a lot more rum.

I'd never seen a chicken butchered before. Even with a half-gallon of Bacardi coursing through my veins, I used to be taken back by the whole process. "It's free range chicken, good for you. I bet you've never had one like this before", my new friend said. He was right. But "free range?" Industry experts. The chickens were caged. Apparently, they'd only been caged a day... I promised not to tell anybody that my hosts were, as whatever they did was technically illegal. Their "free range" chickens were actually wild chickens found everywhere in the island. They weren't meant to catch them, aside from eat them.

Since the rum bottles continued to disappear, our conversation focused on the birds roasting on the spit. My wife, a very health conscious, organic food loving, granola muncher was excited to test the "natural" poultry, and of course a jug-full of homemade mango sangria.

There has been a movement within the chicken farming industry lately. You might have seen the Perdue Chicken commercials touting their "antibiotic free" farming practices. The truth is, privately held Perdue only uses human antibiotics in a very tiny proportion with their flock. Less than 5%.

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) America's second largest chicken producer recently announced their goal to cut back antibiotics their flock too. By 2019, they expect "only" 75% is going to be using antibiotics (outpacing many of their competition). Associated with simple, rrndividuals are demanding it. Pilgrim's Pride is not carrying this out being good stewards. They only start to see the trend and would like to sell more chickens. The main element West chickens, on the other hand, are antibiotic free simply because they're feral.

Antibiotic free chicken sales have raised by double digits per year since 2011. Both McDonald's and Chick-fila have announced they will stop selling chicken products raised on antibiotics essential in human medicines. The excitement is clear, poultry is going clean.

Studying the Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) chart during the last year you can observe the stock has gotten a beating.

investment-idea

However, after a recent low well under $20 per share, PPC appears to be on the rebound. After having a sydney showing a sharp increase in profit, as well as the announcement of a $150 million share buyback program, the stock is now looking like healthy times might be ahead.

PPC's main publicly traded competitor, Tyson Foods (TSN) is almost thrice the scale. Boasting market cap of $17.5 billion, TSN can be greater than double the price (depending on PE) of PPC. Tyson's PE is 16, Pilgrim's is "only" 7.

You might have noticed the buying price of poultry products may be rising lately. Everything from chicken wings to eggs may be getting larger, up or higher. To blame could be the dreaded bird flu. A lot more than 48 million American chickens have succumbed to the disease, crippling the provision of huge farmers.

But this will not last forever. It's been two month's now considering that the last case was detected. Supply is once again rising, with an estimate of two years to full flock recovery. It's this disease that has is partly to blame for the slide in stock price of Pilgrim's Pride, a poultry pure-play.

Together with the disease seemingly in the rearview, now could be the time go take a look at chicken stocks. Sufficient reason for PPC trading below half the PE of TSN, Pilgrim's could be the best bet.

Another rum drink hits my hands and also a cigar. Standing in the spit, the odor of roasting chicken makes me salivate. "You see, these aren't regular chickens. They are a special variety of chicken only found here, and possibly other places, but mostly here. These folks were taken here in the past from Cuba as fighting cocks and hens. You will notice how different they taste."

Somehow another drink finds its way to my left-hand, a mango mojito, prepared while using the fruits on the property. Finally something refreshing I mumble to myself. The prior drinks counseled me rum and coke, not necessarily my cup of tea, but I'm not anyone to be rude to my hosts. Right now I have got quite the thrill on, in the cigar... yeah, the cigar did it.

Admiring the chicken slowly roasting before me, a solid wish to stay here overwhelms me. But that is hardly possible, maybe in another life.

Dinner was served around 3pm. The roasted "free range" chicken, black beans and rice which has a side of fried plantains. My new friend was right; the chicken was like no other bird I had ever tasted. It turned out considerably more primal, gamey... delicious.

By 6pm our kids i wobbled returning to our abode to pack it for the short trip home. I'll never take a look at those wild Key West chickens the same way. From here on out, I will only see those "free range, antibiotic free" birds turning slowly above a wide open fire.

"Where is Bum Farto?" - Citizens of Key West

GQhouse